Future: the US point of view

US Point Of View

On June 24, 1997, the US House of Representatives voted to terminate US troop deployment after the current mandate would expire on June 30, 1998. However, the Administration refused to set a date to terminate for US contributions for SFOR.

In an article for Military Watch, The Balkan Institute stated that the US did not focus on three key developments regarding the international mission.

1. International troop deployment had been so limited that it has failed to reintegrate the former Yugoslav republic. As a result, various warlords remained in control of 3/4 of Bosnia, refugees were unable to return home, human rights were not respected, and war criminals had not been removed from political life.

2. The current international military Stabilization Force's role had been limited to that of a deterrent, rather than a stabilization force. With tensions so high, fighting could easily be resumed if international troops would withdraw, i.e. after removal of the current deterrent.

3. Several countries made it clear that they would withdraw if US troops would leave. Even if European troops would remain present without US troops, Bosnian officials made clear that the international mission would fail to succeed even in its deterrent role. US presence was considered vital after experiences with the British and French led UNPROFOR.

According to The Balkan Institute the US failed to see that the longer the mission of the troops remained limited, the longer they must remain present.

Decision

The US House of Representatives was in favor of ending funding of US SFOR deployment after expiration of the SFOR mission on June 30, 1998. However, an amendment for early withdrawal on December 31, 1997, was defeated.

An argument of the US was that their withdrawal would force European countries to shoulder the full burden of providing support for Dayton implementation, instead of hiding behind the United States. On the other hand, (early) withdrawal would undercut US commitment and would result in a loss of credibility -- with both Bosnian parties and European allies. Both military and civilian aspects of the Dayton Peace Agreement were only partially achieved.

Options

The US Administration faced three realistic options:

• Take the vote of the House of Representatives and withdraw in June 1998 and risk renewal of fighting.
• Extend US commitment and renew SFOR's mandate, perhaps for a shorter period than the initial 18 months.
• Extend US deployment and use US troops to arrest war criminals, facilitate return of refugees, and accomplish other tasks that would reintegrate Bosnia, reduce the risk of war and thus eliminate the need for a long-term international troop deployment.

The latter option was considered to be unlikely.